Firo: What's the Deal?
Okay, folks, pull up a chair. You won't believe this one. We're talking about a dam, built in 1959 – yeah, nineteen fifty-nine. That's before most of your parents were even a twinkle in their grandpappy's eye. And for decades, this hunk of concrete, the Coyote Valley Dam, has been operating on a manual that's basically a relic from the Eisenhower administration. Seriously, the flood control rules? Unchanged since its inception. Let that sink in.
We live in an age where your phone can predict if it's gonna rain on your exact street corner in the next hour, but our critical infrastructure? Nah, we're still running on vibes and historical averages from when tailfins were cool. It's not just incompetence; it's a special kind of stubborn, bureaucratic blindness. They updated the manual twice, sure – once for a power plant, once for fish. But the actual flood control, the thing that keeps people's basements dry and their towns from washing away? Nah, too complicated, I guess. It's an absolute joke.
The Glacial Pace of "Progress"
So, here's the "big news": the New Forecast-Informed Decision-Making Tool Implemented at Northern California Reservoir. After literally decades of operating on a parchment-thin rulebook, they've finally, finally decided to integrate something called FIRO – Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations – into Lake Mendocino's operations. "Inherently bound into our operating rules," says some guy named Malasavage. Like it was some monumental task, not just, y'know, using modern weather forecasts. Give me a break.
This isn't some groundbreaking invention. It's the equivalent of finally upgrading from a rotary phone to a smartphone in 2024 and then acting like you just invented teleportation. They formed a whole damn committee for this, too: USACE, Sonoma Water, Scripps, NOAA, California DWR. A veritable alphabet soup of acronyms, all patting themselves on the back for doing what should've been done twenty years ago. I can just picture the conference calls, the endless PowerPoints, the lukewarm coffee growing cold as they debated the precise wording of "applying modern-day forecasting technology." Meanwhile, the planet was actually changing.
Their goals, bless their hearts, were to "gain valuable observational data," "advance modern-day forecasting technology," and "eventually update the 1950s-era water control manual." Eventually. That's the word that just screams efficiency, ain't it? They're basically saying, "We know we're slow, but we'll get there... eventually." It's like watching a sloth try to win a marathon, only the sloth is wearing a suit and has a pension.
The "Miracle" of Using a Weather App
Now, the revised manual allows an additional 11,650 acre-feet of water storage. That's a decent chunk of change, water-wise. But here's the catch: "at USACE discretion when forecast and advanced decision support tools indicate that it is safe to do so." "Safe." What does that even mean anymore? With climate change turning weather into a roulette wheel, how "safe" is anything? They're acting like they've cracked the code to predicting the future, but they're still just trying to catch up to the present.
They ran "virtual trials" first, then got "USACE-approved deviations." Because, offcourse, you can't just do something sensible; you have to run it through a gauntlet of bureaucratic approvals and then get a temporary permission slip. It's like needing a permit to use an umbrella when it's raining. The fact that they had to demonstrate FIRO "successfully" in a wet year (2019) and a dry year (2020) just highlights the absurdity. Of course it worked! It's using actual weather data instead of a crystal ball from the 50s. In 2020, the third driest year in 127 years, it enabled a 19 percent increase in water storage – over 11,000 acre-feet. That's real water, saved. So, why did it take a multi-agency viability assessment to figure out that looking at the weather helps manage water?
DWR Director Karla Nemeth pipes up, "Our ability to accurately forecast incoming storms has improved dramatically in recent years. Using this new capability... is critical to preparing for California’s hotter and drier future." No kidding, Karla. You don't say. It's like a doctor proudly announcing, "We've discovered that sterile instruments prevent infection!" Yeah, we figured that out a while back, doc. The real question is, why were you still using rusty scalpels until yesterday? This isn't foresight; it's finally wiping the dust off a pair of binoculars that have been sitting on the shelf for decades.
Finally Waking Up, Or Just Hitting Snooze Again?
Look, I'm not saying it's a bad thing. Any step towards sanity in water management is a good step. No, "good" doesn't quite capture it—it’s a necessary, bare-minimum step that should've happened when I was still in grade school. But "Lake Mendocino has been the first of many such efforts across California"? That phrase, "first of many," just chills me to the bone. It means this slow-motion train wreck is going to play out across the entire state, one dam at a time, for who knows how long. Are we really going to wait another 60 years for every reservoir to get with the program? Or will another drought, another flood, finally kick some collective bureaucratic ass into gear? I gotta wonder, what other vital systems are still running on manuals from the age of black and white TV? It's enough to make you wanna just...