Gen Z Years: Defining the Definitive Range, Birth Dates, and Generational Overlaps

Beneath the Hype: Deconstructing Gen Z's 'New Consumption' and Pop Mart's Volatile Valuation

When Bonnie Chan, the CEO of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, stood before the Fortune Global Forum in late October, she wasn't talking about macroeconomics or geopolitical shifts. No, her investor obsession, the "very interesting phenomenon" she dubbed 'new consumption,' was a doll. Specifically, "this thing called Labubu." According to the narrative, this 'ugly-cute' figurine from Chinese toymaker Pop Mart isn't just a hit; it’s the hottest item of 2025, evidence of a profound, emotionally-driven spending shift among China’s Gen Z that’s now sweeping the globe.

It’s a compelling story, complete with celebrity endorsements (Rihanna, Lisa, Dua Lipa) and tennis stars like Naomi Osaka proudly touting her bejeweled "Andre Swagassi" and "Billie Jean Bling" Labubus. But as always, my job is to peel back the layers of marketing gloss and see what the numbers are actually telling us. And while Pop Mart’s financial performance is undeniably spectacular, the underlying dynamics of this "new consumption" trend, particularly as it relates to Gen Z, warrant a much closer, more skeptical look.

The Labubu Anomaly: Numbers vs. Narrative

Let’s talk about the raw data. Pop Mart’s revenue for the first six months of 2025 hit 13 billion Chinese yuan ($1.9 billion), a staggering jump of over 200% year-on-year. Net income surged even more dramatically, up almost 400% to 4.5 billion yuan ($630 million). Labubu alone accounted for a third of those sales. The market responded exactly as you’d expect: Pop Mart’s shares climbed over 125% since the start of 2025, momentarily making it one of the top performers on the Hang Seng Index. Its market cap, $37 billion, is indeed substantial—to be more exact, it momentarily surpassed the combined value of Hasbro, Mattel, and Sanrio.

Those are impressive figures, no doubt. But does a single "ugly-cute" doll, however popular, truly re-rate an entire sector's valuation and signal a fundamental shift in global consumption patterns? Or is it something else entirely? When CEO Wang Ning openly admits he "can’t accurately forecast how long it will last," it’s not a sign of robust, predictable growth; it’s a flashing red light on the dashboard. It suggests an awareness of the inherent volatility in hype-driven markets.

The Mechanism of Mania: Blind Boxes and Deeper Discontent

Pop Mart’s business model isn't just about selling toys; it’s about selling chance. Inspired by Japan’s gachapon machines, customers buy "blind boxes" containing a mystery toy. Some variants are rarer, driving repeat purchases and a secondary market. It’s less a toy sale and more a micro-casino, tapping into the same dopamine pathways as a slot machine, but with collectible plastic. This model is tailor-made for social media, where the unveiling of a rare doll becomes content, fueling the cycle.

This is where I start to see the data point toward something more transactional than transformative. I've analyzed countless consumer trends, and this blind box model, while ingenious for revenue generation, strikes me as a carefully engineered psychological loop rather than a pure expression of 'emotional connection.' It's not about buying a house; it's about a $15 plastic doll (or several, if you're chasing a rare variant).

The narrative suggests this "new consumption" is driven by young urban shoppers, specifically Gen Z, who are "frustrated by limited career options and social mobility." They’re spending on hobbies and small pleasures instead of big-ticket items. This makes sense. When the macro-economy feels rigged, and traditional markers of success—homeownership, stable careers—are out of reach for many millennials and gen z, micro-pleasures become a coping mechanism. It's a discretionary spend that allows for an expression of personality, as Amber Zhang of BigOne Lab notes. But is "emotional consumption" truly a new, sustainable economic trend, or a symptom of deeper, unresolved societal issues?

The data on Gen Z’s fears about dying provides a stark, qualitative counterpoint here. They’ve grown up in a turbulent era—climate change, pandemics, school shootings, economic instability. They joke about death constantly, not because they’re fearless, but because it feels like a present possibility, not a distant fate. Their fear isn't death itself, but "how I’ll die," often linked to "inequality in death" or "mass casualty events." I asked Boomers, Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z their biggest fear about dying. The answers reveal everything When your generation feels this level of existential dread and economic precarity, a $15 blind box offers a small, immediate hit of control and novelty. The correlation between these deep-seated anxieties and a penchant for blind-box toys isn't a straight line, but it suggests that "emotional consumption" might be a symptom of deeper societal pressures rather than a standalone market trend.

The Inevitable Correction: What Comes After the Hype?

The Labubu mania has, predictably, come down from its summertime frenzy. Investors are already wary of declining secondary market prices for the dolls, a clear sign of dwindling popularity. Pop Mart's shares dropped 40% from their peak, and in early November, the company lost almost $2.2 billion in market value after a salesperson was caught on a surreptitiously livestreamed conversation admitting the blind boxes are overpriced. That kind of immediate, severe market reaction isn't indicative of a stable, long-term growth story; it’s the market’s nervous system twitching at the first sign of vulnerability.

Analysts like HSBC are hopeful, comparing Pop Mart to global IP companies like Lego and Sanrio, dismissing parallels to the Beanie Baby bubble. Pop Mart is expanding globally, generating 40% of its revenue outside Greater China. Chinese intellectual property and local brands like Genshin Impact, Black Myth: Wukong, and even Chinese cosmetics are gaining traction overseas, marking China’s emergence as a global cultural powerhouse. This broader trend is real, and it’s significant.

But Pop Mart itself? The question remains: can it "make the transition into being a lifestyle," as Ashley Dudarenok of ChoZan asks, or will it remain dependent on the next fuzzy, grinning, yeti-like toy? The numbers suggest a company brilliant at capitalizing on fleeting trends and psychological triggers. The challenge is converting that into enduring cultural relevance and stable revenue streams beyond the next viral blind box.

The Numbers Don't Lie: It's Arbitrage, Not Alchemy

Pop Mart’s success isn't a mystical transformation of consumer behavior; it’s a highly effective arbitrage of social media virality, psychological triggers, and a generation's desire for affordable, personalized escapes from a challenging reality. The "new consumption" trend among Gen Z might be real, but it’s less about a fundamental re-evaluation of value and more about making do with smaller, more immediate gratifications. The market’s recent jitters confirm what the data always implies: hype is transient, and true value is built on something far more substantial than blind luck and cute monsters.